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Author Topic: 2018 Non Conference Statistical Analysis  (Read 2457 times)

Offline mrap24

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2018 Non Conference Statistical Analysis
« on: December 24, 2018, 09:44:40 PM »
All right ladies and Gents.  Took some time this afternoon and did a deep analysis of the non conference.  AS we would all agree, the non con was broken up really into 2 sections: 1) The Easy 7 and the 2) Tough 4.  With that the case I broke it down that way.  Enjoy, ask question and develop the opinions as you might.

We are 8-3  Started the Season ranked 76th in Kenpom (out of 353).  After 11 Non Con games we are currently ranked 108.  Our SOS is 345 and our offense is ranked 128th and the defense in 92nd.  3 pt shooting both making and defending is again a huge issue (273 on offense and 272 defending them) and in looking at it we are pretty good in the 2 pt game, ranking top 50 in both areas (29th on offense and 49th on defense).  27% of our points are 3 points while 40% of our opponents points come via the 3 pointer.  Our starters are playing 72% of our minutes.  At 2.04 years average experience we are the 72nd most experienced team in the country, and most experienced in the big east.  at an average height of 78", we are the 35th biggest team in the land. 

As mentioned, the schedule was 4 High major teams and really 7 pretty bad/mostly low major teams and the win/losses kinda fell that way.  Our 8 wins are vs the (currently) 317,318,46,233,338,350,198,339 ranked teams in KenPom and the 3 losses are vs the (currently) 53,45,92 ranked teams.  So breaking it out we are 1-0 vs top 50, 1-3 vs top 100, 1-3 vs top 150, 2-3 vs top 200, 3-3 vs top 250, 3-3 vs top 300 and 8-3 vs all of D1.  For those of you scoring at home, that 5 of the 8 wins vs KenPom 300+.  Taking it a step further, those 5 wins are vs teams greater than 317 (of 353).  You cant say any other way, we scheduled and got fat on really bad teams to boost a win total.  Being only 2-3 vs the top 200 and 1-3 vs the top 150 is rough given the experience of this team.  Play the similar schedule as last year and this again is probably an under .500 team

In all games, we are +104 scoring in the first half and even in the 2nd half.  That number would be much better if not for the 2nd halves of the Tough 4 games as we are a -53.  Everywhere else we are plus.

As a team we are shooting 47% from the field and 31% from the arc.  our 11 opponents are shooting 41.4% from the field and 36.3% from 3.

Looking at individual stats (keeping it to the 9 guys i deem in the rotation)), i broke it down into 3 categories: 1) Tough 4, 2) Easy 7 and 3) All Games.  It broke down like this:

Max:
- Tough 4: 39 mpg, 15 ppg while going 23-69 from the field (33%) and 7-40 from 3 (18%). 58% of his shots are from 3 and he is scoring .87 points per shot
- Easy 7 (6 gms): 33 mpg, 22.8 ppg while going 44-84 from the field (52%) and 26-54 from the arc (48%). 64% of his shots are from the arc and es is scoring 1.61 PPS
- All games: 35.5 mpg, 19.7 ppg while going 67-153 from the field (44%) and 33-94 from the arc (35%).  61% of his shots are from 3 and he is averaging 1.288 PPS

Eli:
- Tough 4: 36.8 mpg, 9.8 ppg while going 15-50 from the field (30%) and 5-21 from 3 (24%).  He is scoring .78 points per shot
- Easy 7 : 32.6 mpg, 16.7 ppg while going 38-75 from the field (51%) and 20-42 from the arc (48%). He is scoring 1.56 PPS
- All games: 34.1 mpg, 14.2 ppg while going 53-125 from the field (42%) and 25-63 from the arc (40%). He is averaging 1.248 PPS

Gage:
- Tough 4: 30.8 mpg, 12.0 ppg while going 20-43 from the field (47%) and 1-6 from 3 (17%).  He is scoring 1.116 points per shot
- Easy 7 : 26.4 mpg, 9 ppg while going 23-50 from the field (46%) and 1-8 from the arc (13%). He is scoring 1.26 PPS
- All games: 28 mpg, 10.1 ppg while going 43-93 from the field (46%) and 2-14 from the arc (14%). He is averaging 1.194 PPS

JCL:
- Tough 4 (3 gms): 32.3 mpg, 8 ppg while going 7-23 from the field (30%) and 4-17 from 3 (17%).  He is scoring 1.043 points per shot
- Easy 7(6 gms) : 28.8 mpg, 10.3 ppg while going 88-52 from the field (35%) and 10-39 from the arc (26%). He is scoring 1.56 PPS
- All games: 30 mpg, 9.6 ppg while going 25-75 from the field (33%) and 14-56 from the arc (25%). He is averaging 1.147 PPS

Reed:
- Tough 4: 16.5 mpg, 4.3 ppg while going 8-16 from the field (50%) and 0-1 from 3 (0%).  He is scoring 1.063 points per shot
- Easy 7 : 25.7 mpg, 10 ppg while going 27-52 from the field (55%) and 0-6 from the arc (0%). He is scoring 1.346 PPS
- All games: 22.4 mpg, 7.9 ppg while going 35-68 from the field (51%) and 0-7 from the arc (0%). He is averaging 1.279 PPS

Butz:
- Tough 4: 21.5 mpg, 6.8 ppg while going 11-15 from the field (73%).  He is scoring 1.8 points per shot
- Easy 7 : 18.3 mpg, 7 ppg while going 21-34 from the field (62%). He is scoring 1.441 PPS
- All games: 19.5 mpg, 14.2 ppg while going 32-49 from the field (65%). He is averaging 1.551 PPS

Femi:
- Tough 4: 28.5 mpg, 13.8 ppg while going 19-31 from the field (61%) and 3-4 from 3 (75%).  He is scoring 1.774 points per shot
- Easy 7 : 22.1 mpg, 9.3 ppg while going 24.34 from the field (71%) and 1-3 from the arc (33%). He is scoring 1.912 PPS
- All games: 24.5 mpg, 10.9 ppg while going 43-65 from the field (66%) and 4-7 from the arc (57%). He is averaging 1.846 PPS

Flynn:
- Tough 4 (2 gms): he has yet to take a shot
- Easy 7(6 gms): 8.3 mpg, 2.7 ppg while going 6-10 from the field (60%) and 2-5 from the arc (40%). He is scoring 1.6 PPS
- All games: 7.1 mpg, 2 ppg while going 6-10 from the field (60%) and 2-5 from the arc (40%). He is averaging 1.6 PPS

Lyrik:
- Tough 4(3 gms): 9.3 mpg, 1.3 ppg while going 2-9 from the field (22%) and 0-2 from 3 (0%).  He is scoring .44 points per shot
- Easy 7 : 8.7 mpg, .9 ppg while going 3-8 from the field (38%) and 0-3 from the arc (0%). He is scoring .75 PPS
- All games: 8.9 mpg, 1 ppg while going 5-17 from the field (29%) and 0-5 from the arc (0%). He is averaging .588 PPS

Some Observations:

- The team lacks depth.  its been a 7 man rotation most of the season, with DL playing the starting 5 major minutes.  In many games we won by double digits (in control most of the way), the starters playing 30+ minutes, often times 35+.  Hard to say if that has been a factor vs high major teams, but collapsing down the stretch has been a common theme.  Could the guys be tiring out?  hard to say.  Its a shame we didnt take advantage of a really easy non con to get guys significant PT.  We dont have depth to count on and liekly will go 7 deep the rest of the year, which could be rough in an 18 game BE schedule
- The teams two best players are as inconsistent as can be.  Great vs poor teams and terrible vs better teams.  When their teams need them to show up and be leaders, they are nowhere to be found.  The are building most of their nice stats vs extremely poor competition.  In order for them to be successful vs High Major teams, they need Eli and Max to be efficient and consistent, which they havent been able to do.  Other teams have them as marked men and they cant adjust
- Max is feasting on poor competition.  When the competition steps up, his efficiency goes way down.  He is a bad 3 point shooter who insists on shooting the majority of his shots from 3.  Vs high major teams he is very inefficient and is really nothing more than a chucker.  40 of his 69 shots vs the tough 4 are long distance, making 18%
- Eli Cain is in a very similar sense to Max, but even worse and more inconsistent.  He as been pretty good vs weak competition, and downright awful vs High major teams.  One trend i see, is that smartly, vs better teams he shoots less 3 pointers as he shoots them at a really low clip vs better defenses.  Like Max, the better the competition, the less efficient he becomes.  He really hasnt shot the ball well vs better defenses in any fashion and really has fallen in love with the 3 ball, which isnt his strong suit
- Devin Gage has been pretty consistent this season and has played better ball vs better competition.  He has been very good at taking it to the basket, which is smart b/c 3 point shooting isnt his game, he knows it and he stays away from it (14 attempts in 11 games).  It will be interesting to see his season develops, will teams start to sag off him some knowing he isnt a 3 point threat.  he has had great success attacking the hoop and hopefully he continues to do so.
- Femi is another guy who has played fairly consistent throughout the season and has upped his game vs stiffer competition.  If anything, he probably isnt being used enough, he is shooting 66% from the field on the year and 60% vs the high majors.  The ball dominance of the wings and the inability to feed the post has hurt Femi's production, but to date he is having a really nice season
- JCL was brought into make shots, and quite frankly he cant hit the broad side of a barn.  Doesnt matter who we are playing he is really struggling from the field.  He is on pace for a significant career low in 3 point shooting.  To add on to his disappointing shooting, injuries continue to plague hi as he is out for probably 4-6 week with a broken finger or hand.  Its to his non shooting hand, so maybe he can get back and turn it around.
- Plain and simple Paul reed is being totally misused.  he has shown many flashes but again the poor usage and ball dominance from other players has affected him.  For some reason vs the tough competition he isnt laying much even though he is showing to be able to handle inferior competition.  in what should be a development year, his growth is absolutely being stunted by the make up of this team and the inability of his coach being able to figure out how to use him.  He has turned into a decent defensive player as a soph, but he has more talent than just a 1 way player.  They must figure out how to use him
- I am not sure what we have with Jalen Butz.  he is really not part of the offense in any fashion.  Most of his point come via putbacks, or as the recipient of a nice drive.  He really has no offensive game outside of 5 feet, and his job in to bang, which he does ok on defense when he can do so without fouling (which he has done better at).  I am not sure we will find out what he is much this season
- Flynn and Lyrik are spot minute guys.  Not sure they are ready to play at this level and its a shame we couldnt use the weaker portion of the noncon to get them minutes.  Them not playing will only hurt the development of the team next year, when depth will likely again be an issue (graduating 3 guys and have 2 guys coming in who will likely play a bunch).  Unlikely these 2 will get enough minutes to give us opinions 1 way or the other as the rotation has been tight, and its even tighter vs good teams

Thats all i got, fell free to comment, bash, ask questions, but the facts are what they are!

Offline lovethedrake

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Re: 2018 Non Conference Statistical Analysis
« Reply #1 on: December 25, 2018, 05:08:25 AM »
Great work mrap... I think it’s glaringly obvious that this is a decent team but has two ball dominant seniors who completely stink in crunch time.

Between max and Eli taking terrible shots (that always seem to lead to an easy run out for the other team) and DL not coaching them to take better shots this team has been a complete disaster when it counts.

If it weren’t for Ra Bolton being a freshman chucker we wouldn’t have beaten penn st either and would have lost that game just like the nu and bc games.

Offline VUWildcat2103

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Re: 2018 Non Conference Statistical Analysis
« Reply #2 on: December 25, 2018, 05:57:55 AM »
All right ladies and Gents.  Took some time this afternoon and did a deep analysis of the non conference.  AS we would all agree, the non con was broken up really into 2 sections: 1) The Easy 7 and the 2) Tough 4.  With that the case I broke it down that way.  Enjoy, ask question and develop the opinions as you might.

We are 8-3  Started the Season ranked 76th in Kenpom (out of 353).  After 11 Non Con games we are currently ranked 108.  Our SOS is 345 and our offense is ranked 128th and the defense in 92nd.  3 pt shooting both making and defending is again a huge issue (273 on offense and 272 defending them) and in looking at it we are pretty good in the 2 pt game, ranking top 50 in both areas (29th on offense and 49th on defense).  27% of our points are 3 points while 40% of our opponents points come via the 3 pointer.  Our starters are playing 72% of our minutes.  At 2.04 years average experience we are the 72nd most experienced team in the country, and most experienced in the big east.  at an average height of 78", we are the 35th biggest team in the land. 

As mentioned, the schedule was 4 High major teams and really 7 pretty bad/mostly low major teams and the win/losses kinda fell that way.  Our 8 wins are vs the (currently) 317,318,46,233,338,350,198,339 ranked teams in KenPom and the 3 losses are vs the (currently) 53,45,92 ranked teams.  So breaking it out we are 1-0 vs top 50, 1-3 vs top 100, 1-3 vs top 150, 2-3 vs top 200, 3-3 vs top 250, 3-3 vs top 300 and 8-3 vs all of D1.  For those of you scoring at home, that 5 of the 8 wins vs KenPom 300+.  Taking it a step further, those 5 wins are vs teams greater than 317 (of 353).  You cant say any other way, we scheduled and got fat on really bad teams to boost a win total.  Being only 2-3 vs the top 200 and 1-3 vs the top 150 is rough given the experience of this team.  Play the similar schedule as last year and this again is probably an under .500 team

In all games, we are +104 scoring in the first half and even in the 2nd half.  That number would be much better if not for the 2nd halves of the Tough 4 games as we are a -53.  Everywhere else we are plus.

As a team we are shooting 47% from the field and 31% from the arc.  our 11 opponents are shooting 41.4% from the field and 36.3% from 3.

Looking at individual stats (keeping it to the 9 guys i deem in the rotation)), i broke it down into 3 categories: 1) Tough 4, 2) Easy 7 and 3) All Games.  It broke down like this:

Max:
- Tough 4: 39 mpg, 15 ppg while going 23-69 from the field (33%) and 7-40 from 3 (18%). 58% of his shots are from 3 and he is scoring .87 points per shot
- Easy 7 (6 gms): 33 mpg, 22.8 ppg while going 44-84 from the field (52%) and 26-54 from the arc (48%). 64% of his shots are from the arc and es is scoring 1.61 PPS
- All games: 35.5 mpg, 19.7 ppg while going 67-153 from the field (44%) and 33-94 from the arc (35%).  61% of his shots are from 3 and he is averaging 1.288 PPS

Eli:
- Tough 4: 36.8 mpg, 9.8 ppg while going 15-50 from the field (30%) and 5-21 from 3 (24%).  He is scoring .78 points per shot
- Easy 7 : 32.6 mpg, 16.7 ppg while going 38-75 from the field (51%) and 20-42 from the arc (48%). He is scoring 1.56 PPS
- All games: 34.1 mpg, 14.2 ppg while going 53-125 from the field (42%) and 25-63 from the arc (40%). He is averaging 1.248 PPS

Gage:
- Tough 4: 30.8 mpg, 12.0 ppg while going 20-43 from the field (47%) and 1-6 from 3 (17%).  He is scoring 1.116 points per shot
- Easy 7 : 26.4 mpg, 9 ppg while going 23-50 from the field (46%) and 1-8 from the arc (13%). He is scoring 1.26 PPS
- All games: 28 mpg, 10.1 ppg while going 43-93 from the field (46%) and 2-14 from the arc (14%). He is averaging 1.194 PPS

JCL:
- Tough 4 (3 gms): 32.3 mpg, 8 ppg while going 7-23 from the field (30%) and 4-17 from 3 (17%).  He is scoring 1.043 points per shot
- Easy 7(6 gms) : 28.8 mpg, 10.3 ppg while going 88-52 from the field (35%) and 10-39 from the arc (26%). He is scoring 1.56 PPS
- All games: 30 mpg, 9.6 ppg while going 25-75 from the field (33%) and 14-56 from the arc (25%). He is averaging 1.147 PPS

Reed:
- Tough 4: 16.5 mpg, 4.3 ppg while going 8-16 from the field (50%) and 0-1 from 3 (0%).  He is scoring 1.063 points per shot
- Easy 7 : 25.7 mpg, 10 ppg while going 27-52 from the field (55%) and 0-6 from the arc (0%). He is scoring 1.346 PPS
- All games: 22.4 mpg, 7.9 ppg while going 35-68 from the field (51%) and 0-7 from the arc (0%). He is averaging 1.279 PPS

Butz:
- Tough 4: 21.5 mpg, 6.8 ppg while going 11-15 from the field (73%).  He is scoring 1.8 points per shot
- Easy 7 : 18.3 mpg, 7 ppg while going 21-34 from the field (62%). He is scoring 1.441 PPS
- All games: 19.5 mpg, 14.2 ppg while going 32-49 from the field (65%). He is averaging 1.551 PPS

Femi:
- Tough 4: 28.5 mpg, 13.8 ppg while going 19-31 from the field (61%) and 3-4 from 3 (75%).  He is scoring 1.774 points per shot
- Easy 7 : 22.1 mpg, 9.3 ppg while going 24.34 from the field (71%) and 1-3 from the arc (33%). He is scoring 1.912 PPS
- All games: 24.5 mpg, 10.9 ppg while going 43-65 from the field (66%) and 4-7 from the arc (57%). He is averaging 1.846 PPS

Flynn:
- Tough 4 (2 gms): he has yet to take a shot
- Easy 7(6 gms): 8.3 mpg, 2.7 ppg while going 6-10 from the field (60%) and 2-5 from the arc (40%). He is scoring 1.6 PPS
- All games: 7.1 mpg, 2 ppg while going 6-10 from the field (60%) and 2-5 from the arc (40%). He is averaging 1.6 PPS

Lyrik:
- Tough 4(3 gms): 9.3 mpg, 1.3 ppg while going 2-9 from the field (22%) and 0-2 from 3 (0%).  He is scoring .44 points per shot
- Easy 7 : 8.7 mpg, .9 ppg while going 3-8 from the field (38%) and 0-3 from the arc (0%). He is scoring .75 PPS
- All games: 8.9 mpg, 1 ppg while going 5-17 from the field (29%) and 0-5 from the arc (0%). He is averaging .588 PPS

Some Observations:

- The team lacks depth.  its been a 7 man rotation most of the season, with DL playing the starting 5 major minutes.  In many games we won by double digits (in control most of the way), the starters playing 30+ minutes, often times 35+.  Hard to say if that has been a factor vs high major teams, but collapsing down the stretch has been a common theme.  Could the guys be tiring out?  hard to say.  Its a shame we didnt take advantage of a really easy non con to get guys significant PT.  We dont have depth to count on and liekly will go 7 deep the rest of the year, which could be rough in an 18 game BE schedule
- The teams two best players are as inconsistent as can be.  Great vs poor teams and terrible vs better teams.  When their teams need them to show up and be leaders, they are nowhere to be found.  The are building most of their nice stats vs extremely poor competition.  In order for them to be successful vs High Major teams, they need Eli and Max to be efficient and consistent, which they havent been able to do.  Other teams have them as marked men and they cant adjust
- Max is feasting on poor competition.  When the competition steps up, his efficiency goes way down.  He is a bad 3 point shooter who insists on shooting the majority of his shots from 3.  Vs high major teams he is very inefficient and is really nothing more than a chucker.  40 of his 69 shots vs the tough 4 are long distance, making 18%
- Eli Cain is in a very similar sense to Max, but even worse and more inconsistent.  He as been pretty good vs weak competition, and downright awful vs High major teams.  One trend i see, is that smartly, vs better teams he shoots less 3 pointers as he shoots them at a really low clip vs better defenses.  Like Max, the better the competition, the less efficient he becomes.  He really hasnt shot the ball well vs better defenses in any fashion and really has fallen in love with the 3 ball, which isnt his strong suit
- Devin Gage has been pretty consistent this season and has played better ball vs better competition.  He has been very good at taking it to the basket, which is smart b/c 3 point shooting isnt his game, he knows it and he stays away from it (14 attempts in 11 games).  It will be interesting to see his season develops, will teams start to sag off him some knowing he isnt a 3 point threat.  he has had great success attacking the hoop and hopefully he continues to do so.
- Femi is another guy who has played fairly consistent throughout the season and has upped his game vs stiffer competition.  If anything, he probably isnt being used enough, he is shooting 66% from the field on the year and 60% vs the high majors.  The ball dominance of the wings and the inability to feed the post has hurt Femi's production, but to date he is having a really nice season
- JCL was brought into make shots, and quite frankly he cant hit the broad side of a barn.  Doesnt matter who we are playing he is really struggling from the field.  He is on pace for a significant career low in 3 point shooting.  To add on to his disappointing shooting, injuries continue to plague hi as he is out for probably 4-6 week with a broken finger or hand.  Its to his non shooting hand, so maybe he can get back and turn it around.
- Plain and simple Paul reed is being totally misused.  he has shown many flashes but again the poor usage and ball dominance from other players has affected him.  For some reason vs the tough competition he isnt laying much even though he is showing to be able to handle inferior competition.  in what should be a development year, his growth is absolutely being stunted by the make up of this team and the inability of his coach being able to figure out how to use him.  He has turned into a decent defensive player as a soph, but he has more talent than just a 1 way player.  They must figure out how to use him
- I am not sure what we have with Jalen Butz.  he is really not part of the offense in any fashion.  Most of his point come via putbacks, or as the recipient of a nice drive.  He really has no offensive game outside of 5 feet, and his job in to bang, which he does ok on defense when he can do so without fouling (which he has done better at).  I am not sure we will find out what he is much this season
- Flynn and Lyrik are spot minute guys.  Not sure they are ready to play at this level and its a shame we couldnt use the weaker portion of the noncon to get them minutes.  Them not playing will only hurt the development of the team next year, when depth will likely again be an issue (graduating 3 guys and have 2 guys coming in who will likely play a bunch).  Unlikely these 2 will get enough minutes to give us opinions 1 way or the other as the rotation has been tight, and its even tighter vs good teams

Thats all i got, fell free to comment, bash, ask questions, but the facts are what they are!
Thanks for writing War and Peace.

Offline DBooth30

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Re: 2018 Non Conference Statistical Analysis
« Reply #3 on: December 26, 2018, 11:41:29 AM »
Awesome stuff. At least Gage holds his own vs power 6 comp even though I haven't any use for him. He's so lassez faire with the ball and always makes the dumbest choice possible. In fairness to him, he's good at getting steals and makes it's.

Offline mrap24

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Re: 2018 Non Conference Statistical Analysis
« Reply #4 on: December 26, 2018, 12:49:22 PM »
Great work mrap... I think it’s glaringly obvious that this is a decent team but has two ball dominant seniors who completely stink in crunch time.

Between max and Eli taking terrible shots (that always seem to lead to an easy run out for the other team) and DL not coaching them to take better shots this team has been a complete disaster when it counts.

If it weren’t for Ra Bolton being a freshman chucker we wouldn’t have beaten penn st either and would have lost that game just like the nu and bc games.

some things that are obvious:

-the program has no leadership on any level.  admin, coach, players.  no leadership in any facet (and it shows).  no program is being built, no culture has changed (any claims are just pure lipservice) and we cant say we are better today than the day OP was fired (wont say we are worse either, but not in a better place).  its year by year to keep their job
-DL was probably the worst possible hire that could have been made, and its setting the program back every day he is in charge.  Hate to say it, but the sooner he is fired the better.  Like firing him tomorrow isnt soon enough
-Love Max and Eli as people and they play hard, but lets be honest, they are bumslayers.  They are low IQ players who are out there to get theirs.  They need to be leaders, team guys and they arent.
-We agree that the usage of max and eli needs to go (way) down and gage, femi and reed needs to go up
- schedule was put together to save a job and try and sell "we are winning" to get fans into the arena.  i mean we are looking at 1500 per game of actual so there is no way depaul is net positive on arena investment as of now

Offline DPU70

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Re: 2018 Non Conference Statistical Analysis
« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2019, 07:45:24 AM »
with out top 3 PPS players being in the middle, why does DL always settle for a deep 3 at the end of the game.

Just seems obvious that a play should be drawn up to utilize these guys more then they are.

 


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