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Sheffield and Fullerton => Demons Abyss => Topic started by: Ciepierball on February 08, 2016, 05:20:53 PM

Title: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: Ciepierball on February 08, 2016, 05:20:53 PM
While I think many of us see improvements when it comes to coaching, game management, and just intensity, we are still seeing alot of losses, and what I'm about to say isn't going to blow people away, however the numbers behind it might.  I really believe that the main problem to our lack of success is due to our "superstar", Billy Garrett Jr.  I want to show a few numbers, and then offer my solution that I believe will help us going forward into next year and beyond.

Just looking at Big East play, where are true competition is, Billy's numbers have been average, and extremely below average for a "leader".  During Big East play, in 28.5 minutes a game, Billy is averaging 12.3 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists to 3.1 turnovers, 0.9 steals, while shooting 39.4% from the field, 29.4% from the arc, and 78% from three throws, on about 10 shots a game.  Obviously his points are down from where they need to be.  His shooting has been horrible, being below 40% from the field, below 30% from the arc, and for being a "great" free throw shooter, is only hitting 78%, which is just above average.  Lastly, his assist:turnover ratio is horrible for a PG, being at 1.03:1.  Freshmen Jalen Brunson has a 1.47:1.  Pathetic for a "veteran leader".  This guy has the ball in his hands all the time, and why?  What's he doing for us?  This is the guy that NEEDED to be retained?

Let's look at Garrett's teammate, and FRESHMEN, Eli Cain.  In 29.2 minutes a game in Big East play, he's averaging 8.4 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.7 turnovers, 0.7 steals, while shooting 37.4% from the field, 32% from the arc, and 53.7% from the stripe, all on just over 7 shots a game.

What do I notice?  The coaches have decided to play Cain more than Garrett during conference play.  I notice that his assist-to-turnover ratio is 1.6:1, versus about 1:1.  I notice that a freshmen is shooting just about as good as the guy he should be looking up to.  I noticed that he's able to guard THE BEST GUARD IN THE COUNTRY, and Billy wasn't ask to.

The ball needs to be in Cain's hands more.  He needs to be given to reigns and let him be "the man" going forward.  The Billy Garrett experiment needs to be over.  Cain is showing me he has better attributes, and has more room to grow.  Is Cain's stats amazing?  No....but he's a freshmen.  And he plays defense.  And he's more effective with the ball.

I knew I didn't like Billy Garrett....but after looking at the numbers, I dislike him even more now.
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: lovethedrake on February 08, 2016, 05:48:12 PM
This is the same BS commentary we hear year after year after year.     Brandon Young Sucks, lets get rid of him.  Cleveland Melvin sucks, lets get rid of him.   Dar Tucker sucks, lets get rid of him. 

News flash, your team does NOT get better when you lose your best player or one of your best players.   

How many teams are game planning for Eli Cain right now?   

I usually agree with your commentary Ciep but I think you are WAY off base here.   Billy Garrett is overrated and has underperformed but to insinuate that the reason we are down this year is because of Garrett is just ludicrous.

Thats my opinion.   This addition by subtraction crap is the same rhetoric we hear year after year.
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: hbomb on February 08, 2016, 05:52:24 PM
I remember FoxSports did a special on BG last year specifically about sickle cell.  The doctor interviewed mentioned it's incredibly rare for a person with serious sickle cell, like he has, to play at a high D1 level.  It's almost unheard of actually and the doctor made it very clear what BG is able to do is nearly astounding.  I think his lack of production is due to fatigue.  He's tired before the ball is tipped.  His stats are those of a PG that has no legs.  Tired players turn the ball over a lot and can't hit shots.  Maybe he needs to be playing 15-20 mins a game.
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: lovethedrake on February 08, 2016, 06:00:53 PM
To further back up my post:  Lets look at a comparison of numbers between BG last year and this year.  Let us see if this determines why the team is down THIS year.

Shooting Percentage   2014-2015  .397   
                                 2015-2016    .408

Rebounds                   2014-2015    2.4
                                 2015-2016     3.2

Assists                       2014-2015     3.9
                                 2015-2016      3.7

Blocks                        2014-2015     .3
                                 2015-2016     .2

Steals                         2014-2015     .7
                                  2015-2016     .6

Turnovers                   2014-2015     2.3
                                  2015-2016     2.5

Points                         2014-2015      12.3
                                  2015-2016      13.2

Minutes                      2014-2015       30 Per game
                                 2015-2016        28 Per game


These stats are nearly identical in every single category.   
                                 
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: lovethedrake on February 08, 2016, 06:03:47 PM
I made a mistake... his turnovers are actually 2.5 this year and were 2.3 last year which I edited.

So he has .2 less assists and .2 more turnovers in 2 less minutes.   However, his shooting percentage, scoring and rebounding are actually up.
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: lovethedrake on February 08, 2016, 07:11:37 PM
Also, for the record  Billy Garrett had a better assist to turnover ratio as a Freshman than Cain does.   Cain averages 1.7 Assists and 2.0 Turnovers.

I like Cain a lot.  I have said many times I think he will emerge as the best 4 year player on this current roster.   

I am sure we all looked at Billy's numbers and told Brandon Young to hit the road.  Now we are doing the same thing to Billy.
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: VUWildcat2103 on February 09, 2016, 08:06:30 AM
Ciepier really hit a nerve with LoveTheDrake. It is not surprising to me, as we have debated over Garrett for nearly two years now.

I think the comparison of Cain and Garrett is absurd and I do not think Cain should be the PG.

However, I do think that Cain should be more of a focus on offense.
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: OldSchoolDemon on February 09, 2016, 10:15:07 AM
there is a reason Leitao is recruiting a point guard for 2016. I've been clamoring for a true point for years now
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: Griffin11 on February 09, 2016, 10:28:16 AM
A lot of the commentary is a bit of a reach.  Cain playing 29.2 minutes per game versus Garrett playing 28.5 minutes a game doesn't show that the staff is going with Cain over Garrett.  We have two starters playing almost the same minutes.  One of which has an illness the causes fatigue.

And as long as Myke Henry is on the floor he needs to be the man.  Do they want to win games? Or develop players?

I'm all for developing our talent, but then go all in and play the freshmen big men who are sitting.  See if they have any hope going forward.  Big men take longer to develop so you might as well throw them out there if you're not winning.  At the very least play them before PR and JH.

Garrett is a good player.  Good not great and it was a poor choice for this administration to bank the future of the program on a solid player that is not a program changer.
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: Ciepierball on February 09, 2016, 11:56:50 AM
A few responses...

Freshjive - Didn't mean that Cain should be the PG.  Meant it in terms of I think he should have the ball in his hands more.  First because he's less prone to turn it over, and second because he is a freshmen and really can gain from this experience.  We aren't playing for anything at this point, so why not build our future?

Hbomb - I feel bad that Billy has a disease.  You never wish something like that on anyone.  However, if he's "the man", I expect the output of the like, disease or not.  If it effects him that much, then you need to ride someone else, and have him be a complimentary player.  There is something to this, because he does seem more gassed than ever.

Lovethedrake - You mention fans wanting to get rid of Dar Tucker, Brandon Young, and Cleveland Melvin....didn't you want them out?  Those guys were cancers to the team...guys that thought about "me" before "we".  And you can argue that many players are like that, however those players personified that.  I can compare them with Isaiah Rider from the NBA.  Dunk Champion....17 points a game......had to retire from the league after only 9 years.  Why?  No one wanted him.  He was all about himself, not about the team.  Same with these guys.

You said do teams have a gameplan for Cain, but they do for Garrett.  To be honest, any team worth a damn has a gameplan for every player on the team.  Most college teams use a program called Synergy.  On there you can look at every basket someone has made...any miss they have made, and break it down to the smallest detail (ie. all baskets made within 15 feet off a couple of dribbles).  Trust me, they do plan for him.

If we had 4 wins right now, and Garrett was out for the year with like a torn ACL, you would say: "Losing Garrett has hurt a ton, and that's why we have won 4 games".  Well, he's our "key player", he's our "point guard", and he's played like crap.  So, with that being said, he's not the only issue, but the main one.

I will end with this.  A point guard's main job is ball progression, and on both ends.  On offense, it's to progress the ball from one end line to the other, and helping the team get the ball into the hoop, whether it be setting up someone or going himself.  On defense, it's trying to eliminate ball progression.  Make the guy you're guarding go east and west, and not north and south.  Make sure he can't set anyone else up.  Tell me....does he do either one well?
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: lovethedrake on February 09, 2016, 12:58:22 PM
Garrett has not been the player we had hoped but its not different this year than last year. That was my point.  His numbers are identical and IMO so is his play.   

It doesn't explain why we are down this year VS any other of our down years.
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: VUWildcat2103 on February 09, 2016, 01:21:15 PM
Garrett has not been the player we had hoped but its not different this year than last year. That was my point.  His numbers are identical and IMO so is his play.   

It doesn't explain why we are down this year VS any other of our down years.
Do you not think it is a problem that his junior year numbers are so similar to his freshman year?

It speaks to lack of development to many.
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: Ciepierball on February 09, 2016, 03:29:27 PM
Do you not think it is a problem that his junior year numbers are so similar to his freshman year?

It speaks to lack of development to many.

DING DING DING!
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: lake county fan on February 09, 2016, 05:01:40 PM
bgjr has not got any better in the last 2 years if it is his health I do not know. A lot of kids at DePaul dont ever get any better that is on both the kid and coach. Need better players I see games where key players hit open looks you can count on it not one player at DP can be counted on to make a big shot in crunch time
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: VUWildcat2103 on February 09, 2016, 06:02:29 PM
Do you not think it is a problem that his junior year numbers are so similar to his freshman year?

It speaks to lack of development to many.

DING DING DING!
Ciep - great that you laid this all out, but have to say, you did not say anything really new. LTD has gone at me for quite a while because I have been down on Garrett long before. that said, welcome to the club.
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: lovethedrake on February 09, 2016, 06:03:11 PM
I see that as a problem but it still doesn't explain why we would be down this year Vs last year.  They are the same player, the only constant.   Its not a good thing when you don't develop, I agree, but he is not the reason we are down.
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: lovethedrake on February 09, 2016, 06:04:12 PM
I admit that he has been a disappointment as a player overall.  That was not what this thread was about though.
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: erbsademon on February 11, 2016, 10:17:10 PM
DePaul's not down vs 2015 season, they just have not improved vs 2015.  They've remained just as crappy.  While the rest of the BE except St. John's have all gotten better. 
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: mrap24 on February 12, 2016, 12:42:44 PM
you guys do realize that aside from rebounding, we are worse this year in every major category.

we are bad b/c we have average talent and we hired a terrible coach who hired a bad staff.  things are about to get worse
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: lovethedrake on February 12, 2016, 01:51:49 PM
The competition has been considerably tougher up to this point.   I am not giving a pass to the current staff because there appears to be little to no improvement.  However, the SOS can explain why we are down in every statistical category.   Our SOS is 12 right now.   

We have our 3 easiest BE games of the season coming up so expect the SOS to get worse and the statistics to improve.
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: VUWildcat2103 on February 12, 2016, 01:55:23 PM
SOS per the RPI numbers - http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/sort/sos

Last year's SOS was 95, so yes there is an improved schedule. So apples to apples would be conference stats and let me provide you with a spoiler... conference statistics this year are far worse than last year.
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: mrap24 on February 12, 2016, 02:28:24 PM
The competition has been considerably tougher up to this point.   I am not giving a pass to the current staff because there appears to be little to no improvement.  However, the SOS can explain why we are down in every statistical category.   Our SOS is 12 right now.   

We have our 3 easiest BE games of the season coming up so expect the SOS to get worse and the statistics to improve.


you are right the SOS is tougher, but i dont see any improvement as the season goes on.  defense is getting worse and the offense has stunk all season.  also, keep in mind, everyone in the BE, except for us, is recruiting very well.  so annually, its gonna get tougher
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: VUWildcat2103 on February 12, 2016, 02:49:02 PM
The competition has been considerably tougher up to this point.   I am not giving a pass to the current staff because there appears to be little to no improvement.  However, the SOS can explain why we are down in every statistical category.   Our SOS is 12 right now.   

We have our 3 easiest BE games of the season coming up so expect the SOS to get worse and the statistics to improve.


you are right the SOS is tougher, but i dont see any improvement as the season goes on.  defense is getting worse and the offense has stunk all season.  also, keep in mind, everyone in the BE, except for us, is recruiting very well.  so annually, its gonna get tougher
I am 100% with you. Offensively we are worse and defensively, the defensive points per possession is down right scary.
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: lovethedrake on February 12, 2016, 03:51:11 PM
My exact post before applies to what I will say in this post.  You can't do an apples to apples comparison of conference play yet when our 3 easiest games of the conference season are about to approach.   Do it after those three games have been played. 

Perhaps our stats will get even worse, who knows... but its premature to make those comparisons.  We very well may win all three games and then all of the sudden might be on pace to win 6 games in the BE and have improved stats.
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: lovethedrake on February 12, 2016, 04:04:53 PM
Also, where are you guys getting your defensive statistics from? 

According to kenpom we have improved in both major defensive categories this season:

Effective FG %

2015- 246
2016- 180

Efficiency-

2015- 228
2016- 176


Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: mrap24 on February 13, 2016, 12:37:33 PM
Also, where are you guys getting your defensive statistics from? 

According to kenpom we have improved in both major defensive categories this season:

Effective FG %

2015- 246
2016- 180

Efficiency-

2015- 228
2016- 176


i just look at basic boxscore stats  i compare team stats from last year to this year
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: VUWildcat2103 on February 15, 2016, 09:48:47 AM
My exact post before applies to what I will say in this post.  You can't do an apples to apples comparison of conference play yet when our 3 easiest games of the conference season are about to approach.   Do it after those three games have been played. 

Perhaps our stats will get even worse, who knows... but its premature to make those comparisons.  We very well may win all three games and then all of the sudden might be on pace to win 6 games in the BE and have improved stats.
After 10 games this year, YOU were championing the stats on how improved DePaul's defense was and I was saying... lets see when the sample set includes conference play. 3 games may drop the numbers, but for DePaul to go from 10th to 9th in the conference for Defensive Points per Possession, in those 3 games, DePaul would need to average .875 points per possession defensively... a feat they did twice this year (UIC and Chicago State). That comes from BBstate.

Using your KenPom stuff, click on Conference Only;

CONFERENCE ONLY Effective FG %

2015- 50.1
2016- 53.3

Efficiency-

2015- 110.2
2016- 112.4

So yes, the next three games may lower the 2016 numbers for conference, but apples to apples, closing out with PC, Seton Hall and Nova is likely going to bring those conference only numbers back up.
Title: Re: The True Reason We Are Down This Year
Post by: Hayes-Healy Superstar on February 15, 2016, 11:35:10 AM
It's been an awful year, no two ways to spin it.  And while I don't think this team is that talented, the talent on THIS years team is better than last year.  So I can say that Dave has failed spectacularly this season.
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